Wednesday, April 07, 2010

A Short Coming of Borgman's Function

In developing our theory of technology, we only discussed at length what state T(t) technology is in at some time t, and in particular Borgman discussed and established the nature T(now) . However, this erroneous in nature, because technology is evolving and Borgman fails to predict the possible states T3 T4, T5, T6, ... that T(t) could evolve into. Lets look at the history of technology and how it evolved. Technology in it's infantile stage was in the form ofcrude hand tools (an instrumentalist dream). As time increased the complexity and autonomy the tools developed slowing moving state to state and finally into a state that is dominated by devices. Devices are semi-automatic and partially tool-like. I'm going to make an assumption for furthering this argument that technology is moving toward near-full-auton0my. This gives a time-spectrum form as shown.




Instruments_________Semi-Automatic Devices__________Near-Full Autonomy__(t-axis)




At any point along this spectrum, there is a possibility cone that determines the number of possible states that technology could develop into. Let's do a rock hard example (heheh). Suppose we a the point in time, where predominately stone tools are the technology, with some metal tools in the mix. We could project at a future point that metal tools will dominate, however what kind of metal tool? Iron or Bronze? Iron or Bronze metal tools are examples of possible future states T1 and T2 that T(now) could move into.



I'm sure you are wondering why this is a cone, and not a line where T1 moves to T2 to T3 to T4...., this linearity only make sense in hindsight, if we project into the future, technology has several possible ways it could develope along the t-axis. Therefore we have a possiblity cone, where the radius of the cone at any point t determines the amount of possible states it could move into. Super far into the future, there is very, very many possibilities technology could go into, however say a year from now, there is more definite states that technology seems to be directed to, like example one with the stone tools moving metal.


Lets jump to now, we are solidly in the device paradigmn, but what will technology become?

Now that i've established my conical model, I perdict that technology have effective 3 distinct states it could move into. Fully Inogranic Technology, Linear Combonation, and Fully Bio Technology, with the most probably state being a linear combonation, with majority weight on the biological side, a merger of machine and creature.

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