Thursday, April 22, 2010

Brand has suggested, and we discussed this briefly in class, that the only solution, now to reverse anthropogenic global warming is by geo-engineering and on a large scale. This I think is quiet foolish. One, lets suppose that we are causing global warming, and it is by a very tinkering with the planet that caused this global problem. Couple our assumption with the fact that we cannot predict future global climates changes accurately, then, how do you suppose we fully understand what are geo-engineer will have in the long run? Let me back up my statement "we cannot predict future global climate changes" with quotes from an annual scientific review form the Intergovernmental Panel For Climate Control (IPCC)
1. "The state of science at the present is such that it is only possible to give illustrative examples of possible outcomes"
2. "Accurate simulation of current climate does not guarantee the ability of a model to simulate climate change correctly"
3. "While we do not consider that the complexity of a climate model makes it impossible to ever prove such a model "false" in any absolute sense, it does make the task of evaluation extremely difficult and leaves room for a subjective component in any assessment."
4. "In sum, a strategy must recognize what is possible. In climate research and modeling, we should recognize that we are dealing with a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and therefore that the long term prediction of future climate states is NOT POSSIBLE"
http://www.crichton-official.com/speech-ourenvironmentalfuture.html

One, these official statements cast serious doubt on my assumption being true, and it does at the very least show we DO NOT understand the repercussions of a massive invasive actions to 'cool' down the planet from global warming. Since 'long term prediction of future climate states is not possible." I think when it comes to massive geo-engineering we should invoke the precautionary principle.

2 comments:

(1-x^2)y''-2xy'+L(L+1)=0 said...

In electrodynamics Dr. Riehemann had said something related to this discussing differential equations "...Oh and if its non-linear, well you might as well just throw it out the window"

Jerome Langguth said...

Interesting. But what if the offending equation hits a passer-by?